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6/13/09

Iran Voter Fraud Proof? Ahmadinejad Steadily Increased Lead

Here is a graph of Ahmadinejad's votes versus Mousavi's votes as the poll progressed through the day. Ahmanidinejad's lead increased steadily. So steadily in fact, that it forms a perfectly straight line.

When does a vote progress so statistically precise? It looks like Iran just generated vote numbers by increasing them periodically in Ahmadinejad's favor.

Here's the raw data of the votes as they came in:

Ahmadinejad Mousavi Percentage Difference
2,955,131 7,027,919 .4204845
4,628,912 10,230,478 .452463
6,575,844 14,011,664 .469312
7,526,117 15,913,256 .4729464
8,124,690 16,974,382 .4786442
8,929,232 18,302,924 .4878582
9.2 million 18.7 million .4919786
12,669,341 23,988,614 .5281398
11.7 million 21.8 million .5366972

This consistent statistic is particularly unlikely for Iran: "Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own. For example, in the present elections, Mr. Mousavi is an Azeri and speaks Turkish. The Azeries make up 1/4 of all the eligible voters in Iran and in his trips to Azerbaijan province, where most of the Azeri population lives, Mr. Mousavi had been greeted by huge rallies in support of his campaign. Likewise, Mr. Karroubi, the other reformist candidate, is a Lor. But according to the data released by Iran’s Interior Ministry, in both cases, Mr. Ahmadinejad has far outdone both candidates in their own provinces of birth and among their own ethnic populations."

[sources for poll numbers: here, here, here, here, here]

More analysis of the voter fraud here

There are numerous reports that Iranian police are going door to door to arrest anyone with satellite access. Satellites are technically illegal in Iran but many people have them (so I read.) Internet connections are at snail speed. There are also reports of power outages around Tehran.

Mousavi has been arrested, reports DailyKos.

Facebook and Twitter, and newspaper printing, have been blocked by the government. Youtube, Skype, international TV, and cell phone use has also been blocked. "CNNFail" is the new keyword on Twitter for media bias in Iran reports...

1 comment:

Euripides said...

What! You mean an autocratic system is proved to be abusive? That's amazing!